I thought it might help to visualize claims and probabilities like this. (I won’t commit to any of it; I disagree with much!) Obviously the more specific you make a claim, the less probable it becomes, e.g. “Jesus was executed” is slightly more probable and less specific than “Jesus was crucified” (a specific type of execution), and I didn’t separate that one like I did others. Jesus knowing John–that’s obviously a prerequisite for his baptism, etc. Tedious, no? Usually we historians–I say “we” to be polite–don’t write history like this, and for good reason. The triangle remains incomplete; I could have filled it in more and gone lower. I think the vast majority of historical-Jesus scholars are mostly in agreement down to (or until parts of) purple territory. When you start getting more specific, down lower–e.g. “What did he mean by ‘Reign of God’?”–the consensus starts to break down.
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